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20.11.2024

Preparing for inflation by investing in commodities

Over the past two years, commodities have lagged behind the upward trajectory of the stock markets. Nevertheless, some investment experts urge not to underestimate their role. Stock and commodity indices compared Stocks and commodities seem to be travelling on two very different tracks: as Andrew Bary points out in ‘Barron's’, the S&P 500 Index has risen 25% this year, after having gained 26% in 2023; the Bloomberg Commodity Index, on the other hand, has fallen 3% this year and even 13% during 2023. It is not just a question of performance but also of investment volumes: Bary also points out that, overall, it can be estimated that around $250 billion is invested in financial products dedicated to commodities, compared to the $50 trillion invested in stocks included in the S&P 500. Commodities as an asset against inflation There are those who believe, however, that commodities should not be undervalued, all the more so today: the fiscal policies of the admini ...

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19.11.2024

Chinese market sinks luxury industry

The luxury market is going through a complicated phase: the problem it faces is a drop in demand from a market that is considered very important, the Chinese market. Fall in luxury consumption in China The luxury market's problem today is above all China: Danilo Taino writes in the ‘Corriere della Sera’. Rather than competition from Chinese products, the luxury market today fears above all the slowdown in growth in China, where not only average consumption spending, but also luxury consumption spending, is shrinking. LVMH and Kering: shrinking market share in Asia Taino gives the example of fashion giant LVMH: in the third quarter, sales in Asia contracted by 16%. Another figure reported by Taino: Kering's market share in the Far East, excluding Japan, fell from 38% to 32% of total sales. Some reasons for the drop in demand The reasons for the drop in demand for luxury goods in China are more than one: some relate to market dynamics, namely price increases dur ...

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18.11.2024

Unbridled markets: risks and opportunities of a record market

The US stock market continues its rise: but with what risks and opportunities for investors? Record results for the US stock market After the election that saw the victory of Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump, the US stock market pointed upwards: the S&P 500 surpassed 6 thousand points for the first time, while in the course of a single week, some $56 billion flowed into ETFs and funds investing in US indices; record figures, as Gunjan Banerji points out in the ‘Wall Street Journal’ (WSJ), which could be due (Banerji explains) to expectations of deregulation, according to some, or to the simple end of tensions after the clear result that emerged from the presidential election, according to others. Banerji also points out that interest in small cap investments has also grown, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 Index, which has risen by 2% since the election. Some risks accompanying this bullish market Stocks are rising, but some risk factors remain ...

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15.11.2024

Rebalancing your portfolio: why and what does it entail?

Investments that last over time often need periodic checks, aimed at rebalancing the asset allocation. The ‘buy and hold’ strategy There are investment strategies that involve buying and selling shares in the short term, with the aim of gaining from the price differential. These are typically risky strategies, discouraged by experts for retail investors: the risk linked to market timing, i.e. investing untimely, can lead to non-negligible losses in the portfolio. Therefore, one of the strategies to mitigate this risk is, as emerges from an article by Vittorio Baselli, published on ‘Morningstar’ the ‘buy and hold’ strategy, i.e. a strategy aimed at preserving the securities in the portfolio over time. Why can rebalancing a portfolio be useful? Even a ‘buy and hold’ strategy, however, has some disadvantages. Over time, two things occur: 1) the portfolio's asset allocation changes due to physiological market movements; 2) investment ...

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14.11.2024

Investing in small caps, a professional's instructions

Small caps have underperformed on average over the past two years compared to mid- and large-cap companies: this does not detract from the fact that some managers believe that this market segment may harbour some investment opportunities within it. Small caps: companies more tied to economic and rate cycles In an interview with ‘Financialounge’ (during the ‘Stay Live’ programme), Aniello Pennacchio, Deputy Country Head Italy at DPAM, highlighted some of the characteristics of small caps, including the fact that they are more affected by economic trends on average than large caps. In addition, companies with low capitalisation levels typically rely more on credit for their growth, so it is not surprising that they are affected by rising interest rates more than other sectors. Supply chains: from problem to potential asset Small caps, or at least some segments of that market, have also been penalised in terms of supply chains. Pennacchio points out, however, t ...

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13.11.2024

Active funds or ETFs? The word from the experts

Active funds or ETFs? Let's take a closer look at the comparison in the opinion of some professional investors. Mutual funds and ETFs It is a well-known comparison between active mutual funds and ETFs. As Steve Garmhausen (‘Barron's’) writes, active funds have the potential to beat the benchmark, but they cost more; passive funds, on the other hand, have lower prices and greater transparency (they are also sometimes more tax-efficient), but they have the drawback not only of having to follow the trajectory of the index, but also of having to submit to market spreads in the case of transactions. In this regard, Garmhausen then reported some considerations by some asset management professionals. Comparing strategies In the words of the managers, it emerges that the choice of professional investors can fall on either mutual funds or passive funds. This depends on both the investment segment and the personal and individual strategies of the managers, perhaps opting ...

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12.11.2024

Inflation could return, better prepare

For some time now, inflation seems to be scaring the markets much less: this is understandable, since the data have shown a clear downward trend in price increases. But (thinking about the short to medium term) is the inflation problem really behind us? Rates, the US and inflation targeting Not only in Europe, but also in the US the inflation target of 2% seems to have been reached: the Fed's preferred indicator shows price growth of 2.1% over the past twelve months. In the meantime, the US central bank lowered rates by a further 0.25 per cent: now they are in a range between 4.5 and 4.75 per cent. Has the battle against inflation been won? Things look like they could be more complicated than that. The two inflationary pushes of the Trump administration As Axel Botte, chief strategist at Ostrum AM, points out on ‘FONDS Professionell’, it is perhaps too early to sing victory against inflation and, above all, a further lowering of interest rates could prove to be a mi ...

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11.11.2024

Bitcoins are flying in the post-election period, but how far will they go?

The election won by former President Donald Trump was warmly welcomed by supporters and investors of cryptocurrencies. What were the effects of this event and what are now the prospects for the world's most highly capitalized cryptocurrency, namely bitcoins? Trump's victory pushed bitcoins to break all records As expected, Donald Trump's election victory in the election for the White House pushed up the price of bitcoins. During the campaign, the Republican candidate, after all, had expressed his favor towards cryptocurrency (even proposing the possibility of creating a strategic reserve in bitcoin). Bitcoins now hover around the value of $81,000 each, a figure that represents an all-time record. But how far could the queen of cryptocurrencies continue to grow? Futures market looks even higher MacKenzie Sigalos (“CNBC”) points out that on the Deribit derivatives trading platform, bitcoin futures have surpassed $90,000. Still in the area of derivatives contra ...

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08.11.2024

Evidence of Chinese recovery: how convincing is it?

What to expect from the Chinese economy? Will the measures put in place and announced by the Beijing government be enough to revive the country's economy and bring it back to the growth of a few years ago? Reshma Kapadia writes about this in ‘Barron's’ and also reports the opinion of some analysts. Beijing's target: GDP at +5% Will China return to strong growth? Many are wondering. The Beijing government seems to be giving some hope in this regard: a series of expansive economic and fiscal measures have been launched since September. This boost to the economy will help the Chinese Communist Party to reach its 5% growth target. As also reported by the BBC, according to Harry Murphy Cruise, Moody's Analytics economist, these measures are likely to make the country reach the 5% growth target. Two big problems for China's economy Two of China's biggest problems today are the property market and domestic consumption. The real estate market has expa ...

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