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17.10.2024

How much do investors risk from European recession?

How prepared would the markets be for the scenario of a recession in Europe? For some analysts, perhaps European markets are discounting this eventuality too little (or not at all). Uncertain economy, markets towards highs Forecasts on the trajectory of the European economy remain uncertain. There is no shortage of risk and destabilisation factors: from ongoing wars to the slowdown of crucial economies such as Germany. But despite this, markets are close to their highs. As revealed in an article by Sara Silano published by Morningstar, there is a risk that markets are underestimating the probability of a recession. Underestimated signs of weakness? In this regard, Silano reports the opinion of some experts. IG Italia's senior market strategist Filippo Diodovich believes that markets are expecting a possible economic slowdown, but do not seem to be taking the scenario of a recession seriously. This situation, however, is not so unlikely, as some indicators, including the PMI ind ...

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16.10.2024

Economic policies and financial markets in China: what effects?

What prospects for the Chinese financial market? In this respect, much will depend on the effectiveness of the economic policies implemented and to be implemented by the Beijing government. GDP, Property Market and Domestic Market On 18 October, China's National Bureau of Statistics will publish Q3 GDP figures: in Q1 China's GDP grew by 5.3% and in Q2 by 4.7%. But moving the markets in China today appear to be the measures announced and implemented by the Beijing government to solve some structural problems of the Chinese economy, such as the real estate market and domestic consumption. These measures, after initial positive reactions, were greeted negatively by the markets on Friday 11 October. Structural problems and duties As Rita Fatiguso explains in ‘Il Sole 24 Ore’, market participants seem to feel that the measures implemented by the government and the People's Bank of China are not sufficient. Moreover, China now has to deal with the ever-expanding i ...

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15.10.2024

BlackRock's super record numbers

Not only the US markets, but also the large asset management company BlackRock can these days celebrate record results. Unprecedented volume of assets under management BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, released some absolutely record-breaking figures at the end of this third quarter of 2024. The certainly most impressive number is the volume of assets under management: $11.5 trillion, a figure that, as Andrea Greco points out in ‘La Repubblica’, corresponds to about five times the GDP of Italy, but is even higher than the sum of the GDPs of Japan and Germany. BlackRock's record numbers Operating profits are about $2 billion, while net income is over $1.6 billion (revenues are about $5.2 billion). These results have been accompanied by a 23% growth in the stock market this year, so that today the stock is approaching $1,000 per share from around $780 at the beginning of the year. Larry Fink's recent visit to Italy Recently, BlackRock ...

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14.10.2024

The US stock market continues to impress

The US stock exchange continues to break its highs, reaching new records. New records for S&P 500 and Dow Jones New records for the American stock exchanges, in particular for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones: the former index exceeded 5,815 points while the latter index is approaching 42,900 points. As Vittorio Carlini writes in ‘Il Sole 24 Ore’, the driving force behind this growth were the quarterly results achieved by credit institutions. It is interesting to note - as Carlini does - that these were not record-breaking figures: in some cases, such as that of JP Morgan Chase, profits (although still largely positive) fell; however, the results were better than expected, and this was enough for the markets to give momentum to the stock market numbers. JP Morgan's results Remaining in the case of JP Morgan (whose CEO is Jamie Dimon), it must be added - explains Carlini - that the markets evaluated the results of the so-called ‘net interest income’ (the ...

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11.10.2024

Advantages and disadvantages of a planned investment in a fund

An investment plan (which is often a savings plan in a fund) consists of planning an investment over time. In other words, one decides to regularly (typically every month) pay in a certain amount into a financial product. Deposits can have very different durations, even lasting for many years. Avoiding market timing errors and emotional choices One of the advantages that is almost always recognised in these planned investments is the minimisation of market timing errors: instead of waiting for the right time to invest, one pays the same amount regularly, so that the effect of market fluctuations is neutralised over time. This mechanism can be helpful in limiting the emotions that accompany market fluctuations and often lead to making wrong decisions. Affordability and compound interest Then there is the fact that these investment plans can also be conducted from very low amounts (50 euros each month, for example); thus, they are largely accessible investments. Also not to be forgot ...

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10.10.2024

Money market, too late to disinvest?

The interest rate cut by Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve (Fed) was even more than some analysts had expected. But what are the consequences of this decision for a market such as the money market? Consequences of the interest rate cut An interest rate cut typically leads to a lowering of some yields, such as fixed income. Money market products also price such changes in monetary policy. So it is not surprising, as Randall W. Forsyth explains in ‘Barron's’, that many professional investors and financial advisors believe it may be time to disinvest from products such as US government bonds or the money market. Expectations about the Fed's next moves Forsyth writes that it may even be ‘too late’ in the sense that products such as US Treasuries have priced in (downward) cuts that have already taken place and those that are planned. If one then takes the futures market into account, expectations are for a Fed rate cut of 0.75 per cent between now and t ...

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09.10.2024

France is in crisis: time to invest?

France is currently experiencing two problems: the first is its public debt, which continues to grow; the second is political instability, which led to new elections (in July) immediately after the outcome of the European elections (in June). The spread between OAT and German Bunds remains high One of the signs today of a certain weakness in the French economy is the increase in the spread between French ten-year government bonds (OAT) and the corresponding German government bonds. Until June of this year, the spread was hovering around 50 basis points; for several months now, however, the spread has been well above 60 basis points and hovers around 65 to 75 basis points (with peaks of up to 80 points). The burden of debt and deficit in France That the French state needs fiscal measures appropriate to the public debt situation is confirmed by the fact that, as Luciano Capone points out in ‘Foglio’, some 40 billion in spending cuts are planned. Capone also points out tha ...

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08.10.2024

Investment funds and stock market indices that surprised

The magazine ‘FONDS Professionell’ recently published the results of its investment fund barometer. What are some of the most significant results? Excellent results for funds investing in China The fund barometer of ‘FONDS Professionell’ magazine indicates that September was not a month of market contraction, but rather of slight growth (+1.8%). Some sectors performed decidedly better than others; this was the case in China, where there was a ‘spectacular’ turnaround: suffice it to say that the 800 or so funds monitored recorded increases of between 4 and 23%. The consequences of government measures to support the economy The reason for such a result - as we also read in the magazine - lies mainly in the government's measures to support the economy (nevertheless, despite the positive performance of the funds, the managers, we also read in ‘FONDS Professionell’ continue to urge caution). Funds driven by market performance in India ...

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07.10.2024

Investing today by looking at the greats of the US economy and finance

How do the big players in US finance and business behave towards the shares of their own companies? Big investors and entrepreneurs: caution with their own company's shares There is no way to make exact predictions when it comes to financial markets. Nevertheless, it is possible to observe the behaviour of other investors and try to understand what their expectations are. In this sense, in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Karen Langley observed that some leading figures in US business and finance seem to have adopted a particularly cautious investment style, perhaps in anticipation of a worsening economy. A very low share buyback rate From Jeff Bezos to Warren Buffett, from Michael Dell (Dell Technologies) to Mark Zuckerberg, Langley also notes in the WSJ, the attitude seems decidedly cautious: Bezos and Zuckerberg have sold major company shares on the markets, while Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been hoarding cash. But it is not only some of the big names in US finan ...

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CAPITAL INVESTMENT PLAN	ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE	ANNUALISED PERFORMANCE
Returns	31,44%	31,36%

SAVING PLAN (13 PAYMENTS)	ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE
Portfolio result (Portfolio value - Payouts)	13,38%

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